Choose a model
Each card values RealReal a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
RealReal on free cash flow: free cash flow per share, the cash left after investment, grows and is priced at a normal multiple.
Years to project
Growth of free cash flow per share
Free cash flow per share; not enough history; starts at 5%
Exit P/FCF
Starts at its own median P/FCF over five years
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's free cash flow per share
Last twelve months
$0.28
Free cash flow in 2031
Grows 5.0% a year for 5 years
$0.35
Price in 2031
$0.35 × 35.0 P/FCF
$12.41
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$7.70
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$7.70
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$5.78
Paying $13.57 instead gives -1.8% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$7.70
Expected return
-1.8% a year
Future price, 2031
$12.41
Buy below
$5.78
Price 76% above fair valuePrice $13.57, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Build your own intrinsic value for The RealReal, Inc. Start from three cases based on the company's own filings, then change any number to match your view.
Conservative
$7.10
48% below the priceof $13.57
Buy below $5.32 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Base
$13.21
3% below the priceof $13.57
Buy below $9.91 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Optimistic
$26.57
96% above the priceof $13.57
Buy below $19.93 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls inside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits inside the range but 3% above the base case. Upside from here requires beating your own base assumptions.
Base free cash flow
$35M
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
+65.8%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
20.4%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
69%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 20.4% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 20.0%, which is effectively the same bet.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +65.8% a year.
RealReal (REAL) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of RealReal's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for REAL; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is RealReal's (REAL) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, RealReal's fair value is about $7.70 a share, based on its free cash flow per share. That assumes free cash flow per share of $0.28 grows about 5.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 35.0 times free cash flow, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: revenue $6.10. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is RealReal overvalued?+
At $13.57, the price is 76% above that fair value of $7.70, and buying at today's price would return about -1.8% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the RealReal valuation assume?+
Free cash flow per share grows about 5.0% a year to start, a default, because there is too little history. The exit multiple starts at its own median over five years.
What is a good margin of safety for RealReal?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $5.78. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
SourceFair value computed from the 10-Q filed 22 Oct 2026, covering the period ending 30 Sept 2026, as reported to the SEC. Data last refreshed 30 Oct 2026. How this is calculated.
Price from market data, last close as of 4 Nov 2026. Fiscal year ends Dec.
Peers
Retail-Miscellaneous Retail · Pick stocks to compare with REAL
Held by ETFs
REAL is in 41 US ETFs. The largest of them, with REAL's weight in each:
Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in REAL's SEC filings or
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
Keep analysing REAL
A free account gives you 10 stocks a day, a watchlist and price alerts.
Already have an account?
Or come back tomorrow. Stocks on your watchlist are always free to view.