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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$83.29
Intrinsic $111.05 · 25% MOS
Current price: $194.34
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Pool Corp (POOL) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.5% for years 1–5 and 1.3% for years 6–10, anchored to 2.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $313M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $111.05 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $83.29, suggesting the stock is currently 57% overvalued against the $194.34 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$313M
Cash & equivalents
$64M
Total debt
$1.6B
Shares outstanding
36M