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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$310.66
Intrinsic $414.21 · 25% MOS
Current price: $329.89
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Applied Industrial Technologies Inc (AIT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 14.2% for years 1–5 and 7.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 14.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $439M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $414.21 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $310.66, suggesting the stock is currently 6% overvalued against the $329.89 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$439M
Cash & equivalents
$172M
Total debt
$365M
Shares outstanding
38M