Orchid Island Capital, Inc. Intrinsic Value

ORC

Choose a model

Each card values Orchid Island Capital a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.

FFONo valueNot reported, so it cannot be projected.

Earnings-$0.03 a shareEarnings is negative over the last 12 months, so it cannot be projected.

Discounted cash flowAdvancedNeeds a year of positive free cash flow to start from, and there is none in recent years.

Set your assumptions

Orchid Island Capital on dividends: the dividend grows, and the stock ends at the same dividend yield as today.

Years to project

Growth of dividend per share

Dividend per share; starts at its own recent growth

Exit dividend yield

Starts at today's yield

Your desired return

Margin of safety

Your buy price

The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price

How it's worked out

Today's dividend per share
Last twelve months
$1.32
Dividends in 2031
Grows 0.0% a year for 5 years
$1.32
Price in 2031
$1.32 ÷ 10.0% yield
$13.20
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$8.20
Plus dividends
$6.60 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ $5.00
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$13.20
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$9.90

Paying $4.80 instead gives 32.8% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.

Outcome

What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.

Fair value

$13.20

Expected return

32.8% a year

Future price, 2031

$13.20

Buy below

$9.90

Price 64% below fair valuePrice $4.80, at your 10% return

Projection

Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.

Orchid Island Capital (ORC) intrinsic value and fair value

The calculator grows one of Orchid Island Capital's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for ORC; this is analysis, not investment advice.

Frequently asked

What is Orchid Island Capital's (ORC) intrinsic value?+

With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Orchid Island Capital's fair value is about $13.20 a share, based on its dividend per share. That assumes dividend per share of $1.32 grows about 0.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at a 10.0% dividend yield, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: book value $8.77. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.

Is Orchid Island Capital overvalued?+

At $4.80, the price is 64% below that fair value of $13.20, and buying at today's price would return about 32.8% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.

What growth does the Orchid Island Capital valuation assume?+

Dividend per share grows about 0.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at today's yield.

What is a good margin of safety for Orchid Island Capital?+

A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $9.90. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.

More on ORC: Overview · Quality scorecard · Dividend safety · Financials

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Held by ETFs

ORC is in 35 US ETFs. The largest of them, with ORC's weight in each:

Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in ORC's SEC filings or

Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.

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