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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$125.97
Intrinsic $167.95 · 25% MOS
Current price: $76.70
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 84.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $213M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $167.95 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $125.97, suggesting the stock is currently 64% undervalued against the $76.70 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$213M
Cash & equivalents
$250M
Total debt
$710M
Shares outstanding
61M