Choose a model
Each card values Oerlikon a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Oerlikon on free cash flow: free cash flow per share, the cash left after investment, grows and is priced at a normal multiple.
Years to project
Growth of free cash flow per share
Free cash flow per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/FCF
Starts at its own median P/FCF over five years
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's free cash flow per share
Last twelve months
CHF 0.32
Free cash flow in 2031
Grows 0.0% a year for 5 years
CHF 0.32
Price in 2031
CHF 0.32 × 12.3 P/FCF
CHF 3.93
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
CHF 2.44
Plus dividends
CHF 4.25 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ CHF 3.22
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
CHF 5.66
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
CHF 4.25
Paying CHF 5.66 instead gives 7.7% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
CHF 5.66
Expected return
7.7% a year
Future price, 2031
CHF 3.93
Buy below
CHF 4.25
Price at fair valuePrice CHF 5.66, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Build your own intrinsic value for Oerlikon. Start from three cases based on the company's own filings, then change any number to match your view.
Conservative
CHF 1.00
82% below the priceof CHF 5.66
Buy below CHF 0.75 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Base
CHF 1.73
69% below the priceof CHF 5.66
Buy below CHF 1.30 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Optimistic
CHF 2.53
55% below the priceof CHF 5.66
Buy below CHF 1.90 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits above all three scenarios. Either the growth inputs are more cautious than the market's, or the price is ahead of the cash flows.
Base free cash flow
CHF 104M
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
-11.6%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
10.6%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
59%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 10.6% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 2.0%, so the market is paying for growth you are not forecasting.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is -11.6% a year.
Oerlikon (OERL.XSWX) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Oerlikon's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for OERL.XSWX; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Oerlikon's (OERL.XSWX) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Oerlikon's fair value is about CHF 5.66 a share, based on its free cash flow per share. That assumes free cash flow per share of CHF 0.32 grows about 0.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 12.3 times free cash flow, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: revenue CHF 5.32, dividends CHF 18.69. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Oerlikon overvalued?+
At CHF 5.66, the price is at that fair value of CHF 5.66, and buying at today's price would return about 7.7% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Oerlikon valuation assume?+
Free cash flow per share grows about 0.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at its own median over five years.
What is a good margin of safety for Oerlikon?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at CHF 4.25. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Specialty Industrial Machinery · Pick stocks to compare with OERL.XSWX
Held by ETFs
OERL.XSWX is in 16 US ETFs. The largest of them, with OERL.XSWX's weight in each:
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETFVGK0.01%of the fund
Avantis International Small Cap Value ETFAVDV0.02%of the fund
iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap ETFSCZ0.03%of the fund
Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETFSCHC0.04%of the fund
Spot a number that looks wrong?
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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