/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$55.92
Intrinsic $74.56 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Ingevity Corp (NGVT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 9.6% for years 1–5 and 4.8% for years 6–10, anchored to 9.6% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($140M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $74.56 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $55.92.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative ($0). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($140M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$140M
Cash & equivalents
$95M
Total debt
$1.2B
Shares outstanding
36M