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Natural gas distribution company · NJ · FY ends Sep · Revenue $2.59B · 41.54% margin · $369M FCF
$80.94
$0.70 (-0.86%)
EOD Jul 17, 2026
35.72% operating margin is above average. ROIC at 14.54%.
Revenue up 17.1% YoY with margins expanding 24.9pp.
Net debt of $2.83B represents 15.1x FCF, leverage limits flexibility.
10.4x earnings, 21.0x FCF. The multiple is below average. Either the market is pricing in deterioration you should investigate, or there's genuine value here.
Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares
Profitability & Returns
Revenue (TTM)
$2.59B
▲ +17.1% YoY
Net Income (TTM)
$721M
▲ +568.9% YoY
Op. Margin
41.54%
▲ +24.9pp YoY
ROIC
14.00%
▲ +7.2pp YoY
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
FCF (TTM)
$369M
▲ +39.0% YoY
Op. Cash Flow (TTM)
$1.26B
▲ +3.2% YoY
Net Debt
$2.40B
Cash & Equiv.
$27M
5Y CAGR: +8.1%
5Y CAGR: +50.0%
Continue Research
At a P/E of 10.4 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 21.0, National Fuel Gas (NFG) trades below a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $169.71 per share, so at $80.94 the stock looks undervalued (109.7% below estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.
On quality, National Fuel Gas scores 68/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a solid business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. It currently yields about 2.5%; see dividend safety for coverage and history. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology. This is analysis, not investment advice.
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $169.71 per share for NFG, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $127.29. At today's $80.94, that puts the stock about 109.7% below estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.
National Fuel Gas scores 68 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a solid business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 41.5% operating margin and a 14.0% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.
Yes, National Fuel Gas pays a regular dividend of about $2.01 per share per year (typically in quarterly installments), a yield of roughly 2.5% at the current price. That is a payout ratio of about 26.7% of earnings, so the dividend is amply covered by earnings. National Fuel Gas has grown the dividend at roughly 3.7% a year over the past few years. A low headline yield is not the same as a weak dividend: what matters is how well earnings and free cash flow cover the payout and whether it is growing, not the percentage alone. For NFG's full payout history, growth streak and dividend-safety score, see the dividends tab.
That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. NFG currently trades below its estimated intrinsic value and scores 68/100 on quality (solid). It also yields about 2.5%. A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.