Choose a model
Each card values Nexi a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Nexi on free cash flow: free cash flow per share, the cash left after investment, grows and is priced at a normal multiple.
Years to project
Growth of free cash flow per share
Free cash flow per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/FCF
No history to start from; set your own
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's free cash flow per share
Last twelve months
€0.67
Free cash flow in 2031
Grows 14.0% a year for 5 years
€1.29
Price in 2031
€1.29 × 18.0 P/FCF
€23.26
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
€14.44
Plus dividends
€2.26 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ €1.67
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
€16.11
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
€12.09
Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
€16.11
Expected return
Set a buy price
Future price, 2031
€23.26
Buy below
€12.09
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Build your own intrinsic value for Nexi. Start from three cases based on the company's own filings, then change any number to match your view.
Conservative
€20.01
Buy below €15.01 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Base
€34.79
Buy below €26.09 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Optimistic
€67.07
Buy below €50.30 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Where today's price sits
The three intrinsic values, without a price to compare them with.
Base free cash flow
€806M
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
+80.3%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
–
Needs a comparable price
Terminal value share
69%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
No growth rate in the tested range reproduces today's price at these assumptions.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +80.3% a year.
Nexi (NEXI.XMIL) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Nexi's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for NEXI.XMIL; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Nexi's (NEXI.XMIL) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Nexi's fair value is about €16.11 a share, based on its free cash flow per share. That assumes free cash flow per share of €0.67 grows about 14.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 18.0 times free cash flow, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: revenue €13.62. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
What growth does the Nexi valuation assume?+
Free cash flow per share grows about 14.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at a default.
What is a good margin of safety for Nexi?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at €12.09. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Software - Infrastructure · Pick stocks to compare with NEXI.XMIL
Held by ETFs
NEXI.XMIL is in 28 US ETFs. The largest of them, with NEXI.XMIL's weight in each:
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETFVGK0.02%of the fund
iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap ETFSCZ0.09%of the fund
Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETFSCHC0.13%of the fund
Spot a number that looks wrong?
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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