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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$18.26
Intrinsic $24.35 · 25% MOS
Current price: $120.30
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 7.3% for years 1–5 and 3.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 7.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $73M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $24.35 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $18.26, suggesting the stock is currently 85% overvalued against the $120.30 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$73M
Cash & equivalents
$332M
Total debt
$640M
Shares outstanding
59M