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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$76.37
Intrinsic $101.83 · 25% MOS
Current price: $367.47
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 82.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $343M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $101.83 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $76.37, suggesting the stock is currently 79% overvalued against the $367.47 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$343M
Cash & equivalents
$1.2B
Total debt
$42M
Shares outstanding
181M