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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$143.82
Intrinsic $191.76 · 25% MOS
Current price: $164.30
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 4.7% for years 1–5 and 2.4% for years 6–10, anchored to 4.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $437M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $191.76 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $143.82, suggesting the stock is currently 12% overvalued against the $164.30 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$437M
Cash & equivalents
$532M
Total debt
$1.9B
Shares outstanding
39M