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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$212.28
Intrinsic $283.04 · 25% MOS
Current price: $138.33
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 18.4% for years 1–5 and 9.2% for years 6–10, anchored to 18.4% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $652M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $283.04 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $212.28, suggesting the stock is currently 53% undervalued against the $138.33 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$652M
Cash & equivalents
$1.4B
Total debt
$23M
Shares outstanding
111M