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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$35.15
Intrinsic $46.86 · 25% MOS
Current price: $38.45
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for MGM Resorts International (MGM) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 10.6% for years 1–5 and 5.3% for years 6–10, anchored to 10.6% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.5B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $46.86 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $35.15, suggesting the stock is currently 9% overvalued against the $38.45 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
Cash & equivalents
$2.1B
Total debt
$31.6B
Shares outstanding
277M