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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$319.27
Intrinsic $425.69 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 97.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $2.2B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $425.69 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $319.27.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$2.2B
Cash & equivalents
$564M
Total debt
$13.1B
Shares outstanding
232M