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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$13.23
Intrinsic $17.64 · 25% MOS
Current price: $13.67
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Mattel Inc (MAT) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 0.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $411M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $17.64 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $13.23, suggesting the stock is currently 3% overvalued against the $13.67 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$411M
Cash & equivalents
$866M
Total debt
$2.7B
Shares outstanding
301M