Intrinsiqq
Luckin Coffee Inc logoLuckin Coffee IncLKNCY
$33.00-1.73%
Luckin Coffee Inc logo

Luckin Coffee Inc

LKNCY

$33.00

-$0.58 (-1.73%)

⊜ Compare
ProfitabilityThin marginsGrowthAcceleratingCash FlowHealthy conversionValuationFairly valued
What stands out

10.50% operating margin is respectable but not wide. ROIC at 17.45%. Suggests the business covers its cost of capital, but doesn't point to a wide moat.

What's changing

Revenue grew 43.0%, still solid.

What deserves caution

Even for strong businesses, today's 19x P/E means the stock needs to keep delivering. There's no margin of safety if growth disappoints.

Valuation context

18.7x earnings, 20.7x FCF. Valuation is in a reasonable range. The main question is whether the business can re-accelerate or if current trajectory is already priced in.

Price History

-18.6%

Valuation & Multiples

Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares

Market Cap¥70.87B
EPS¥11.76
P/E18.73
P/FCF20.68
EV/EBITDA9.27
FCF Yield4.8%
Div. Yield—
Net Debt/FCF-0.3x
52-Week Range
$27.67$41.15

Profitability & Returns

Revenue (TTM)

¥55.95B

▲ +43.0% YoY

Net Income (TTM)

¥3.79B

▲ +22.8% YoY

Op. Margin

9.91%

▲ +0.4pp YoY

ROIC

17.45%

▼ -0.5pp YoY

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet

FCF (TTM)

¥3.43B

▲ +91.5% YoY

Op. Cash Flow (TTM)

¥6.05B

▲ +54.8% YoY

Net Debt

-¥937M

Net Cash Position

Cash & Equiv.

¥8.20B

3Y CAGR: +54.8%

Continue Research

Is Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) overvalued?

At a P/E of 18.7 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 20.7, Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) trades below a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about CNY 540.42 per share, so at CNY 33.00 the stock looks undervalued (1,537.6% below estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.

On quality, Luckin Coffee scores 78/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a solid business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. All figures are computed from company filings; read the full methodology, or see how the market compares in our US profitability statistics. This is analysis, not investment advice.

Frequently asked

What is Luckin Coffee's fair value?+

Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about CNY 540.42 per share for LKNCY, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around CNY 405.32. At today's CNY 33.00, that puts the stock about 1,537.6% below estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.

Is Luckin Coffee a high-quality business?+

Luckin Coffee scores 78 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a solid business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 9.9% operating margin and a 17.4% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from company filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.

Is Luckin Coffee a good stock to buy right now?+

That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. LKNCY currently trades below its estimated intrinsic value and scores 78/100 on quality (solid). A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.

Related stocks: Restaurants

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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.

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