Choose a model
Each card values Heritage Commerce a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Heritage Commerce on book value: book value per share (equity) grows with retained profit and is priced at a normal price-to-book. For banks and insurers.
Years to project
Growth of book value per share
Book value per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/B
No history to start from; set your own
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's book value per share
Last twelve months
$11.50
Book value in 2031
Grows 0.0% a year for 5 years
$11.50
Price in 2031
$11.50 × 1.2 P/B
$13.80
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$8.57
Plus dividends
$2.60 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ $1.97
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$10.54
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$7.91
Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$10.54
Expected return
Set a buy price
Future price, 2031
$13.80
Buy below
$7.91
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Heritage Commerce (HTBK) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Heritage Commerce's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for HTBK; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Heritage Commerce's (HTBK) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Heritage Commerce's fair value is about $10.54 a share, based on its book value per share. That assumes book value per share of $11.50 grows about 0.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 1.2 times book value, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: earnings $7.88, free cash flow $13.09, revenue $2.03. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
What growth does the Heritage Commerce valuation assume?+
Book value per share grows about 0.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at a default.
What is a good margin of safety for Heritage Commerce?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $7.91. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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