/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$363.04
Intrinsic $484.05 · 25% MOS
Current price: $136.68
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Herc Holdings Inc (HRI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.1% for years 1–5 and 4.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 8.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.0B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $484.05 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $363.04, suggesting the stock is currently 166% undervalued against the $136.68 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.0B
Cash & equivalents
$43M
Total debt
$9.6B
Shares outstanding
33M