Choose a model
Each card values Sumisho Air Lease a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Sumisho Air Lease on earnings: earnings per share grow for a few years, then the stock trades at a normal price-to-earnings multiple.
Years to project
Growth of earnings per share
Earnings per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/E
Starts at its industry's median P/E
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's earnings per share
Last twelve months
$2M
Earnings in 2031
Grows 10.5% a year for 5 years
$4M
Price in 2031
$4M × 20.0 P/E
$73M
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$46M
Plus dividends
$4.50 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ $3.35
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$46M
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$34M
Paying $65.00 instead gives 1523.9% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$46M
Expected return
1523.9% a year
Future price, 2031
$73M
Buy below
$34M
Price 100% below fair valuePrice $65.00, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Build your own intrinsic value for Sumisho Air Lease Corp. Start from three cases based on the company's own filings, then change any number to match your view.
The default base case is 417710× today's price. A gap that wide usually comes from unusual cash flow history, such as a jump from a low base or a gap in the reported figures, not from a real bargain or bubble. Check the free cash flow history below and set growth you believe before relying on it.
Conservative
$8,134,156.97
12513988% above the priceof $65.00
Buy below $6,100,617.73 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Base
$27,151,161.05
41770917% above the priceof $65.00
Buy below $20,363,370.79 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Optimistic
$48,027,828.72
73888867% above the priceof $65.00
Buy below $36,020,871.54 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits below all three scenarios. That reading is only as reliable as the growth rates entered.
Base free cash flow
$1.32B
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
+2.8%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
-1.2%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
60%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes -1.2% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 2.8%, so you are forecasting more growth than the price requires.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +2.8% a year.
Sumisho Air Lease (AL) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Sumisho Air Lease's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for AL; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Sumisho Air Lease's (AL) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Sumisho Air Lease's fair value is about $46M a share, based on its earnings per share. That assumes earnings per share of $2M grows about 10.5% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 20.0 times earnings, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: free cash flow $120M, revenue $18M. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Sumisho Air Lease overvalued?+
At $65.00, the price is 100% below that fair value of $46M, and buying at today's price would return about 1523.9% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Sumisho Air Lease valuation assume?+
Earnings per share grows about 10.5% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at its industry's median.
What is a good margin of safety for Sumisho Air Lease?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $34M. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
SourceFair value computed from the 10-Q filed 7 Aug 2026, covering the period ending 30 Jun 2026, as reported to the SEC. Data last refreshed 3 Oct 2026. How this is calculated.
Price from market data, last close as of 22 May 2026. Fiscal year ends Dec.
Peers
Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC · Pick stocks to compare with AL
Held by ETFs
AL is in 11 US ETFs. The largest of them, with AL's weight in each:
Fidelity Total Bond ETFFBND0.02%of the fund
- APActivePassive Core Bond ETFAPCB0.02%of the fund
American Century Diversified Corporate Bond ETFKORP0.20%of the fund
- PFAAM Low Duration Preferred and Income Securities ETFPFLD0.41%of the fund
- AFAnfield Universal Fixed Income FundAFIF2.04%of the fund
Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in AL's SEC filings or
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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