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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$128.94
Intrinsic $171.92 · 25% MOS
Current price: $65.00
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Sumisho Air Lease Corp (AL) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 7.2% for years 1–5 and 3.6% for years 6–10, anchored to 7.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.6B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $171.92 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $128.94, suggesting the stock is currently 98% undervalued against the $65.00 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.6B
Cash & equivalents
$554M
Total debt
$19.8B
Shares outstanding
112M