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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$85.50
Intrinsic $113.99 · 25% MOS
Current price: $34.15
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 3.8% for years 1–5 and 1.9% for years 6–10, anchored to 3.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $286M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $113.99 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $85.50, suggesting the stock is currently 150% undervalued against the $34.15 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$286M
Cash & equivalents
$69M
Total debt
$936M
Shares outstanding
41M