DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$581.97
Intrinsic $775.96 · 25% MOS
Current price: $120.87
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 5.8% for years 1–5 and 2.9% for years 6–10, anchored to 5.8% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $271M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $775.96 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $581.97, suggesting the stock is currently 381% undervalued against the $120.87 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$271M
Cash & equivalents
—
Total debt
$943M
Shares outstanding
6M