DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$133.43
Intrinsic $177.91 · 25% MOS
Current price: $26.86
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Beazer Homes Usa Inc (BZH) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 41.6% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $97M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $177.91 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $133.43, suggesting the stock is currently 397% undervalued against the $26.86 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$97M
Cash & equivalents
$120M
Total debt
$25M
Shares outstanding
28M