Holcim AG (HOLN.XSWX) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
Conservative
$31.42
52% overvaluedvs $65.84
Base
$36.16
45% overvaluedvs $65.84
Optimistic
$41.37
37% overvaluedvs $65.84
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits above all three scenarios. Under these assumptions the stock looks overvalued, so either the growth inputs are too conservative or the price is ahead of the cash flows.
Base free cash flow
$1.73B
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
-13.2%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
6.7%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
58%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 6.7% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 2.0%, so the market is paying for growth you are not forecasting.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is -13.2% a year.
Holcim (HOLN.XSWX) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Holcim (HOLN.XSWX) at about CHF 48.22 per share, or CHF 36.16 with a 25% margin of safety. At CHF 65.84 the stock looks overvalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Holcim's (HOLN.XSWX) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about CHF 48.22 per share for HOLN.XSWX. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around CHF 36.16. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Holcim overvalued based on a DCF?+
At CHF 65.84, HOLN.XSWX trades above the base-case intrinsic value of about CHF 48.22, a 26.8% premium over that estimate, so on this model it looks overvalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Holcim?+
The base case grows HOLN.XSWX's free cash flow at about 2.0% a year before fading, against roughly -13.2% historical free-cash-flow growth. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Holcim?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns HOLN.XSWX's CHF 48.22 intrinsic estimate into a CHF 36.16 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.