Choose a model
Each card values Thales SA a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Thales SA on earnings: earnings per share grow for a few years, then the stock trades at a normal price-to-earnings multiple.
Years to project
Growth of earnings per share
Earnings per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/E
Starts at the average of its 5-year median P/E, today's and a mature 18
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's earnings per share
Diluted, last twelve months, as filed
€8.13
Earnings in 2031
Grows 13.6% a year for 5 years
€15.38
Price in 2031
€15.38 × 24.9 P/E
€382.98
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
€237.80
Plus dividends
€29.05 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ €21.50
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
€259.30
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
€194.48
Paying €227.50 instead gives 12.6% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
€259.30
Expected return
12.6% a year
Future price, 2031
€382.98
Buy below
€194.48
Price 12% below fair valuePrice €227.50, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Build your own intrinsic value for Thales SA. Start from three cases based on the company's own filings, then change any number to match your view.
Conservative
€191.81
16% below the priceof €227.50
Buy below €143.86 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Base
€226.50
0% below the priceof €227.50
Buy below €169.87 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Optimistic
€264.34
16% above the priceof €227.50
Buy below €198.25 for a 25% safety margin
Your assumptions
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls inside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits inside the range but 0% above the base case. Upside from here requires beating your own base assumptions.
Base free cash flow
€2.57B
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
+2.6%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
2.7%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
59%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 2.7% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 2.6%, which is effectively the same bet.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is +2.6% a year.
Thales SA (HO.XPAR) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Thales SA's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for HO.XPAR; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Thales SA's (HO.XPAR) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Thales SA's fair value is about €259.30 a share, based on its earnings per share. That assumes earnings per share of €8.13 grows about 13.6% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 24.9 times earnings, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: free cash flow €193.73, revenue €194.80, dividends €259.20. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Thales SA overvalued?+
At €227.50, the price is 12% below that fair value of €259.30, and buying at today's price would return about 12.6% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Thales SA valuation assume?+
Earnings per share grows about 13.6% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise). The exit multiple starts at a default.
What is a good margin of safety for Thales SA?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at €194.48. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Peers
Aerospace & Defense · Pick stocks to compare with HO.XPAR
Held by ETFs
HO.XPAR is in 121 US ETFs. The largest of them, with HO.XPAR's weight in each:
Vanguard Total International Stock ETFVXUS0.05%of the fund
iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETFIEFA0.10%of the fund
Spot a number that looks wrong?
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
Keep analysing HO.XPAR
Create a free account and get 14 days of Premium: every stock and every tool.
- Unlimited stocks
- Stock screener
- Portfolio tracker
- Editable DCF
- Compare side by side
- Unlimited alerts
No card. Moves to Free after, unless you upgrade.
Already have an account?
Or come back tomorrow. Stocks on your watchlist are always free to view.