Intrinsiqq
Hillman Solutions Corp. logoHillman Solutions Corp.HLMN
$7.36+1.38%
Hillman Solutions Corp. logo

Hillman Solutions Corp.

HLMN

$7.36

+$0.10 (+1.38%)

⊜ Compare
ProfitabilityThin marginsGrowthSteady growthCash FlowThin conversionValuationNot cheap
What stands out

Operating margin is thin at 7.34%. Limited cushion if revenue slows or costs rise, not the profile of a wide-moat business.

What's changing

Revenue grew 5.4%, steady but not accelerating. Free cash flow declined 64% despite revenue growth, conversion is weakening.

What deserves caution

At 35x earnings, the current multiple leaves limited room for execution misses or growth deceleration. Free cash flow declined 64% versus the prior year, cash generation momentum has weakened.

Valuation context

35.0x earnings, 23.4x FCF. Not cheap, the quality is already reflected in the price. Upside from here requires either margin expansion or growth re-acceleration, not just continuation.

Price History

-22.9%

Valuation & Multiples

Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares

Market Cap$1.43B
EPS$0.21
P/E35.05
P/FCF23.44
EV/EBITDA12.72
FCF Yield4.3%
Div. Yield—
Net Debt/FCF12.9x
52-Week Range
$6.94$10.74

Profitability & Returns

Revenue (TTM)

$1.60B

▲ +5.4% YoY

Net Income (TTM)

$41M

▲ +133.6% YoY

Op. Margin

6.91%

ROIC

4.68%

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet

FCF (TTM)

$61M

▼ -64.2% YoY

Op. Cash Flow (TTM)

$126M

▼ -42.6% YoY

Net Debt

$787M

Cash & Equiv.

$36M

5Y CAGR: +2.6%

5Y CAGR: -5.6%

Continue Research

SourceComputed from the 10-Q filed 31 Jul 2026, covering the period ending 27 Jun 2026, as reported to the SEC. Data last refreshed 12 Oct 2026. How this is calculated.

Price from market data, last close as of 22 Oct 2026. Fiscal year ends Dec. Sector medians are approximate S&P 500 benchmarks and update periodically.

Is Hillman Solutions (HLMN) overvalued?

At a P/E of 35.0 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 23.4, Hillman Solutions (HLMN) trades above a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $2.61 per share, so at $7.36 the stock looks overvalued (64.6% above estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.

On quality, Hillman Solutions scores 48/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a mixed business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology, or see how the market compares in our US profitability statistics. This is analysis, not investment advice.

Frequently asked

What is Hillman Solutions's fair value?+

Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $2.61 per share for HLMN, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $1.96. At today's $7.36, that puts the stock about 64.6% above estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.

Is Hillman Solutions a high-quality business?+

Hillman Solutions scores 48 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a mixed business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 6.9% operating margin and a 4.7% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.

Is Hillman Solutions a good stock to buy right now?+

That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. HLMN currently trades above its estimated intrinsic value and scores 48/100 on quality (mixed). A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.

Related stocks: Cutlery, Handtools & General Hardware

Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in HLMN's SEC filings or

Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.

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Not financial advice. Analytical data for research only.

Intrinsiqq is a Netherlands-based company operating in Rotterdam, KvK 73238007.