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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$82.90
Intrinsic $110.53 · 25% MOS
Current price: $52.05
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 16.9% for years 1–5 and 8.5% for years 6–10, anchored to 16.9% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $328M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $110.53 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $82.90, suggesting the stock is currently 59% undervalued against the $52.05 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$328M
Cash & equivalents
$261M
Total debt
$4.8B
Shares outstanding
84M