Choose a model
Each card values iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust on earnings: earnings per share grow for a few years, then the stock trades at a normal price-to-earnings multiple.
Years to project
Growth of earnings per share
Earnings per share; not enough history; starts at 5%
Exit P/E
Starts at its industry's median P/E
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's earnings per share
Diluted, last twelve months, as filed
$5.91
Earnings in 2031
Grows 5.0% a year for 5 years
$7.54
Price in 2031
$7.54 × 5.7 P/E
$42.99
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$26.70
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$26.70
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$20.02
Paying $34.20 instead gives 4.7% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$26.70
Expected return
4.7% a year
Future price, 2031
$42.99
Buy below
$20.02
Price 28% above fair valuePrice $34.20, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for GSG; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust's (GSG) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust's fair value is about $26.70 a share, based on its earnings per share. That assumes earnings per share of $5.91 grows about 5.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 5.7 times earnings, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust overvalued?+
At $34.20, the price is 28% above that fair value of $26.70, and buying at today's price would return about 4.7% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust valuation assume?+
Earnings per share grows about 5.0% a year to start, a default, because there is too little history. The exit multiple starts at its industry's median.
What is a good margin of safety for iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $20.02. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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