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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$228.37
Intrinsic $304.50 · 25% MOS
Current price: $231.89
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Garmin Ltd (GRMN) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 15.5% for years 1–5 and 7.8% for years 6–10, anchored to 15.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $1.5B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $304.50 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $228.37, suggesting the stock is currently 2% overvalued against the $231.89 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$1.5B
Cash & equivalents
$2.7B
Total debt
$168M
Shares outstanding
194M