Choose a model
Each card values Golub Capital BDC a different way, shown at our starting inputs. Pick one to see and change how it works.
Set your assumptions
Golub Capital BDC on earnings: earnings per share grow for a few years, then the stock trades at a normal price-to-earnings multiple.
Years to project
Growth of earnings per share
Earnings per share; starts at its own recent growth
Exit P/E
Starts at the average of its 5-year median P/E, today's and a mature 18
Your desired return
Margin of safety
More
Your buy price
The expected return is measured from it; starts at today's price
How it's worked out
Today's earnings per share
Diluted, last twelve months, as filed
$0.65
Earnings in 2031
Grows 20.0% a year for 5 years
$1.62
Price in 2031
$1.62 × 16.4 P/E
$26.53
Worth today
÷ 1.10^5: your 10% a year, taken back out
$16.47
Plus dividends
$12.86 paid over 5 years, discounted the same way
+ $9.42
Fair value
The most you can pay and still earn 10% a year
$25.89
Buy below
Fair value minus your 25% margin of safety
$19.42
Paying $13.08 instead gives 24.7% a year. Every rule is on the methodology page.
Outcome
What your assumptions give, and the path from today's price.
Fair value
$25.89
Expected return
24.7% a year
Future price, 2031
$26.53
Buy below
$19.42
Price 49% below fair valuePrice $13.08, at your 10% return
Projection
Solid blue: the price at each year end. Dashed blue: from today's price to the 2031 price. Green: from the fair value, rising at your 10% a year to the same end point; buy at or below it and you earn at least that. Every rule is on the methodology page. A model, not a forecast or advice.
Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) intrinsic value and fair value
The calculator grows one of Golub Capital BDC's per-share figures (earnings, free cash flow, revenue, book value or dividends) for a few years, puts an exit multiple on it, and discounts the result back at the yearly return you want. The answers below use its starting inputs for GBDC; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Golub Capital BDC's (GBDC) intrinsic value?+
With Intrinsiqq's starting inputs, Golub Capital BDC's fair value is about $25.89 a share, based on its earnings per share. That assumes earnings per share of $0.65 grows about 20.0% a year for 5 years, the stock then trades at 16.4 times earnings, and you want a 10.0% yearly return. On its other figures: dividends $16.84. Every input can be changed on the page; the result is a model, not a forecast.
Is Golub Capital BDC overvalued?+
At $13.08, the price is 49% below that fair value of $25.89, and buying at today's price would return about 24.7% a year if those inputs hold. Whether that is cheap or dear depends on whether you believe the growth and the exit multiple, which is what the calculator lets you test. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.
What growth does the Golub Capital BDC valuation assume?+
Earnings per share grows about 20.0% a year to start, its own recent growth per share (three years for a company not yet profitable, five otherwise), capped at 20%. The exit multiple starts at a default.
What is a good margin of safety for Golub Capital BDC?+
A margin of safety is the cushion you want below the fair value before buying, in case the inputs are wrong. The calculator uses 25%, which puts the buy-below price at $19.42. Less predictable businesses deserve a wider cushion, or a higher desired return.
Held by ETFs
GBDC is in 9 US ETFs. The largest of them, with GBDC's weight in each:
VanEck BDC Income ETFBIZD2.93%of the fund
Morgan Stanley Pathway Small-Mid Cap Equity ETFMSSM0.04%of the fund
Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETFPSP0.47%of the fund
WisdomTree Private Credit and Alternative Income FundHYIN3.31%of the fund
- FXSound Enhanced Fixed Income ETFFXED2.67%of the fund
- VPVirtus Private Credit Strategy ETFVPC1.32%of the fund
Spot a number that looks wrong? Check it in GBDC's SEC filings or
Download this analysis as a PDF (Pro)
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
Keep analysing GBDC
Create a free account and get 14 days of Premium: every stock and every tool.
- Unlimited stocks
- Stock screener
- Portfolio tracker
- Editable DCF
- Compare side by side
- Unlimited alerts
No card. Moves to Free after, unless you upgrade.
Already have an account?
Or come back tomorrow. Stocks on your watchlist are always free to view.