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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$-8.41
Intrinsic $-11.21 · 25% MOS
Current price: $11.49
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.0% for years 1–5 and 4.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($13M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $-11.21 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $-8.41, suggesting the stock is currently 173% overvalued against the $11.49 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative (-$9M). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($13M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$13M
Cash & equivalents
$24M
Total debt
$1.0B
Shares outstanding
61M