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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$-3.22
Intrinsic $-4.29 · 25% MOS
Current price: $18.67
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Fox Factory Holding Corp (FOXF) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 7.6% for years 1–5 and 3.8% for years 6–10, anchored to 7.6% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $12M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $-4.29 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $-3.22, suggesting the stock is currently 117% overvalued against the $18.67 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$12M
Cash & equivalents
$54M
Total debt
$525M
Shares outstanding
42M