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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$197.70
Intrinsic $263.60 · 25% MOS
Current price: $69.68
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 18.2% for years 1–5 and 9.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 18.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $184M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $263.60 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $197.70, suggesting the stock is currently 184% undervalued against the $69.68 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$184M
Cash & equivalents
$276M
Total debt
$88M
Shares outstanding
32M