Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. ADR (FMX) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
TTM free cash flow is negative (Mex$0.00). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsense, so this model uses the average of the last three positive years (Mex$21.60B) instead. Treat every figure here as a rough estimate that assumes a return to historical profitability.
Conservative
Mex$442.45
250% undervaluedvs Mex$126.46
Base
Mex$538.74
326% undervaluedvs Mex$126.46
Optimistic
Mex$644.34
410% undervaluedvs Mex$126.46
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits below all three scenarios. Under these assumptions the stock looks undervalued, which is only as reliable as the growth rates you have entered.
Base free cash flow
Mex$21.60B
3-year average, TTM negative
Historical FCF CAGR
-14.2%
Across 5 reported periods
Market implies
-10.7%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
58%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes -10.7% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 2.0%, so you are forecasting more growth than the price requires.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is -14.2% a year.
Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. ADR (FMX) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. ADR (FMX) at about MXN 718.32 per share, or MXN 538.74 with a 25% margin of safety. At MXN 126.46 the stock looks undervalued. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. ADR's (FMX) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about MXN 718.32 per share for FMX. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around MXN 538.74. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. ADR overvalued based on a DCF?+
At MXN 126.46, FMX trades below the base-case intrinsic value of about MXN 718.32, a 468.0% discount to that estimate, so on this model it looks undervalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. ADR?+
The base case grows FMX's free cash flow at about 2.0% a year before fading, against roughly -14.2% historical free-cash-flow growth. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. ADR?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns FMX's MXN 718.32 intrinsic estimate into a MXN 538.74 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.