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$84.10
+$0.62 (+0.74%)
EOD Jul 17, 2026
Operating margin is thin at 9.23%. Limited cushion if revenue slows or costs rise, not the profile of a wide-moat business.
Revenue growth slowed to 2.7%, essentially flat. Margins also contracted 4.3pp. This is a business that needs a catalyst.
At 34x earnings, the current multiple leaves limited room for execution misses or growth deceleration. ROIC dropped from 11.20% to 6.58%, capital efficiency is deteriorating.
33.9x earnings, 14.3x FCF. Not cheap, the quality is already reflected in the price. Upside from here requires either margin expansion or growth re-acceleration, not just continuation.
Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares
Profitability & Returns
Revenue (TTM)
$2.90B
▲ +2.7% YoY
Net Income (TTM)
$285M
▼ -46.3% YoY
Op. Margin
13.43%
▼ -4.3pp YoY
ROIC
9.79%
▼ -4.6pp YoY
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
FCF (TTM)
$711M
▼ -8.2% YoY
Op. Cash Flow (TTM)
$725M
▼ -7.8% YoY
Net Debt
$1.65B
Cash & Equiv.
$1.43B
5Y CAGR: +10.8%
5Y CAGR: +0.0%
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At a P/E of 33.9 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 14.3, Etsy (ETSY) trades around a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $88.84 per share, so at $84.10 the stock looks around fair value (5.6% below estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.
On quality, Etsy scores 54/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a mixed business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology. This is analysis, not investment advice.
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $88.84 per share for ETSY, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $66.63. At today's $84.10, that puts the stock about 5.6% below estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.
Etsy scores 54 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a mixed business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 13.4% operating margin and a 9.8% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.
That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. ETSY currently trades around its estimated intrinsic value and scores 54/100 on quality (mixed). A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.