China Yuchai International Ltd. (CYD) DCF Valuation

Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about CNY 1,945.09 per share for CYD. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around CNY 1,458.82. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.

At CNY 25.49, CYD trades below the base-case intrinsic value of about CNY 1,945.09, a 7,530.8% discount to that estimate, so on this model it looks undervalued. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.

The base case grows CYD's free cash flow at about 20.0% a year before fading, against roughly 36.2% historical free-cash-flow growth. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.

A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns CYD's CNY 1,945.09 intrinsic estimate into a CNY 1,458.82 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.