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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$170.51
Intrinsic $227.35 · 25% MOS
Current price: $110.44
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Crocs, Inc. (CROX) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 4.7% for years 1–5 and 2.4% for years 6–10, anchored to 4.7% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $643M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $227.35 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $170.51, suggesting the stock is currently 54% undervalued against the $110.44 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$643M
Cash & equivalents
$131M
Total debt
$1.7B
Shares outstanding
51M