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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$170.33
Intrinsic $227.10 · 25% MOS
Current price: $153.89
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 17.3% for years 1–5 and 8.7% for years 6–10, anchored to 17.3% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $239M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $227.10 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $170.33, suggesting the stock is currently 11% undervalued against the $153.89 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$239M
Cash & equivalents
$80M
Total debt
$569M
Shares outstanding
43M