Intrinsiqq
Centerra Gold Inc. logoCenterra Gold Inc.CGAU
C$30.96+0.32%
Centerra Gold Inc. logo

Centerra Gold Inc.

CGAU

C$30.96

+C$0.10 (+0.32%)

⊜ Compare
ProfitabilityStrong marginsGrowthDecliningCash FlowHealthy conversionValuationAttractively priced
What stands out

22.71% operating margin is above average. ROIC at 11.49%.

What's changing

Revenue declined 16.7% YoY. The question is whether this is cyclical or a structural shift.

What deserves caution

Free cash flow declined 67% versus the prior year, cash generation momentum has weakened.

Valuation context

7.2x earnings, 47.6x FCF. The multiple is below average. Either the market is pricing in deterioration you should investigate, or there's genuine value here.

Price History

+103.8%

Valuation & Multiples

Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares

Market Cap$4.46B
EPS$3.04
P/E7.25
P/FCF47.65
EV/EBITDA6.56
FCF Yield2.1%
Div. Yield0.94%
Net Debt/FCF-5.6x
52-Week Range
C$15.15C$33.65

Profitability & Returns

Revenue (TTM)

$1.72B

▼ -16.7% YoY

Net Income (TTM)

$637M

▲ +430.9% YoY

Op. Margin

27.10%

▲ +3.0pp YoY

ROIC

11.49%

▲ +3.3pp YoY

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet

FCF (TTM)

$94M

▼ -66.7% YoY

Op. Cash Flow (TTM)

$451M

▼ -19.7% YoY

Net Debt

-$522M

Net Cash Position

Cash & Equiv.

$541M

3Y CAGR: +17.7%

Continue Research

Is Centerra Gold (CGAU) overvalued?

At a P/E of 7.2 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 47.6, Centerra Gold (CGAU) trades above a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $10.61 per share, so at $30.96 the stock looks overvalued (65.7% above estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.

On quality, Centerra Gold scores 62/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a solid business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. It currently yields about 0.9%; see dividend safety for coverage and history. All figures are computed from company filings; read the full methodology, or see how the market compares in our US profitability statistics. This is analysis, not investment advice.

Frequently asked

What is Centerra Gold's fair value?+

Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $10.61 per share for CGAU, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $7.96. At today's $30.96, that puts the stock about 65.7% above estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.

Is Centerra Gold a high-quality business?+

Centerra Gold scores 62 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a solid business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a 27.1% operating margin and a 11.5% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from company filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.

Does Centerra Gold (CGAU) pay a dividend, and how much?+

Yes, Centerra Gold pays a regular dividend of about $0.21 per share per year (typically in quarterly installments), a yield of roughly 0.9% at the current price. That is a payout ratio of about 6.6% of earnings, so the dividend is amply covered by earnings. A low headline yield is not the same as a weak dividend: what matters is how well earnings and free cash flow cover the payout and whether it is growing, not the percentage alone. For CGAU's full payout history, growth streak and dividend-safety score, see the dividends tab.

Is Centerra Gold a good stock to buy right now?+

That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. CGAU currently trades above its estimated intrinsic value and scores 62/100 on quality (solid). It also yields about 0.9%. A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.

Related stocks: Gold

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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.

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