Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
€22.51
Intrinsic €30.01 · 25% MOS
Current price: €62.20
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. (CAF.XMAD) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from €70M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of €30.01 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of €22.51, suggesting the stock is currently 64% overvalued against the €62.20 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
€70M
Cash & equivalents
€626M
Total debt
€817M
Shares outstanding
34M