/
DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$-8.95
Intrinsic $-11.93 · 25% MOS
Current price: $5.55
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.0% for years 1–5 and 1.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $56M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $-11.93 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $-8.95, suggesting the stock is currently 261% overvalued against the $5.55 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$56M
Cash & equivalents
$97M
Total debt
$2.6B
Shares outstanding
129M