Blackstone Strategic Credit 2027 Term Fund (BGB) DCF Valuation
Every assumption below is yours to change. The defaults are derived from this company's own filing history, not from a house view.
Conservative
$7.26
34% overvaluedvs $11.05
Base
$8.87
20% overvaluedvs $11.05
Optimistic
$10.63
4% overvaluedvs $11.05
Where today's price sits
Today's price falls outside the modelled range.
Verdict
Today's price sits above all three scenarios. Under these assumptions the stock looks overvalued, so either the growth inputs are too conservative or the price is ahead of the cash flows.
Base free cash flow
$47M
Trailing twelve months
Historical FCF CAGR
-23.4%
Across 6 reported periods
Market implies
1.3%
Growth needed at 8% WACC
Terminal value share
58%
Of the base case valuation
Growth needed to justify today's price
At a 8.0% discount rate, today's price already assumes 1.3% annual free cash flow growth for ten years. Your base case assumes 2.0%, so you are forecasting more growth than the price requires.
Curve holds terminal growth at 2.5%, years 6 to 10 at half the first-stage rate, and applies no safety margin.
Free cash flow history
The most recent period is the base every projection starts from. Compounded, that history is -23.4% a year.
Blackstone Strategic Credit 2027 Term Fund (BGB) DCF: intrinsic value and margin of safety
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF values Blackstone Strategic Credit 2027 Term Fund (BGB) at about $11.83 per share, or $8.87 with a 25% margin of safety. At $11.05 the stock looks around fair value. Every assumption is adjustable below; this is analysis, not investment advice.
Frequently asked
What is Blackstone Strategic Credit 2027 Term Fund's (BGB) fair value?+
Intrinsiqq's two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about $11.83 per share for BGB. It projects recent free cash flow forward at a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate, then discounts those cash flows back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $8.87. The output moves with the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best read as a range, not a single number. You can change every assumption with the sliders on this tab.
Is Blackstone Strategic Credit 2027 Term Fund overvalued based on a DCF?+
At $11.05, BGB trades around the base-case intrinsic value of about $11.83, a 7.0% discount to that estimate, so on this model it looks around fair value. A DCF is only one lens: a premium can be justified if the business grows faster or is higher quality than the base case assumes, which is exactly what the sliders let you test.
What growth is priced into Blackstone Strategic Credit 2027 Term Fund?+
The base case grows BGB's free cash flow at about 2.0% a year before fading, against roughly -23.4% historical free-cash-flow growth. If the price implies growth well above what the company has actually delivered, the market is paying for optimism; if below, expectations are modest. Adjust the growth assumption on this tab to see what the current price is really betting on.
What is a good margin of safety for Blackstone Strategic Credit 2027 Term Fund?+
A margin of safety is the discount to intrinsic value you demand before buying, to protect against being wrong on the inputs. Intrinsiqq applies 25% by default, which turns BGB's $11.83 intrinsic estimate into a $8.87 entry. Wider margins suit less predictable businesses; you can set your own on this tab. This is analysis from company filings, not investment advice.
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Data sourced from company filings and third-party price providers. Scores, valuations, and metrics are algorithmic estimates. This is not investment advice. See our Terms and Methodology.