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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$21.03
Intrinsic $28.04 · 25% MOS
Current price: $34.00
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 2.2% for years 1–5 and 1.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 2.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $488M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $28.04 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $21.03, suggesting the stock is currently 38% overvalued against the $34.00 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$488M
Cash & equivalents
$608M
Total debt
$3.1B
Shares outstanding
215M