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Axon Enterprise, Inc. ( Axon, the Company, we or us ) is a technology company that provides integrated hardware and software solutions. Founder-led since 1993, Axon began with a mission to protect life and has grown into a global technology company serving a range of customers.
$510.28
$31.47 (-5.81%)
EOD Jul 17, 2026
The business is unprofitable at the operating level (-2.23% margin). The thesis depends entirely on whether and when it reaches sustainable profitability.
Revenue grew 33.5%, still solid. Margins contracted 5.0pp, which offsets some of the top-line progress.
At 206x earnings, the current multiple leaves limited room for execution misses or growth deceleration. Free cash flow declined 77% versus the prior year, cash generation momentum has weakened.
205.8x earnings, 2157.5x FCF. The market is pricing in years of above-average growth. If that thesis breaks, downside from multiple compression alone could be 30%+. This is a stock where you're paying for the future, not the present.
Based on TTM earnings · Diluted shares
Profitability & Returns
Revenue (TTM)
$2.98B
▲ +33.5% YoY
Net Income (TTM)
$206M
▼ -66.9% YoY
Op. Margin
-0.81%
▼ -5.0pp YoY
ROIC
-0.36%
▼ -2.9pp YoY
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
FCF (TTM)
$20M
▼ -77.2% YoY
Op. Cash Flow (TTM)
$154M
▼ -48.2% YoY
Net Debt
$1.11B
Cash & Equiv.
$719M
5Y CAGR: +32.5%
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At a P/E of 205.8 and a price-to-free-cash-flow of 2,157.5, Axon Enterprise (AXON) trades above a two-stage DCF intrinsic value of about $-9.35 per share, so at $510.28 the stock looks overvalued (101.8% above estimated intrinsic value). A high multiple is not the same as overvalued: fast-growing, high-quality businesses can deserve a premium. See the general approach in how to tell if a stock is overvalued.
On quality, Axon Enterprise scores 25/100 on Intrinsiqq's quality scorecard (a lower-quality business on these measures), weighing growth, margins, returns on capital, share count, and balance-sheet strength. All figures are computed from SEC filings; read the full methodology. This is analysis, not investment advice.
Intrinsiqq's two-stage DCF estimates an intrinsic value of about $-9.35 per share for AXON, projecting its recent free cash flow forward with a growth rate that fades toward a long-run rate and discounting it back to today. Applying a 25% margin of safety gives a more conservative fair-value entry around $-7.01. At today's $510.28, that puts the stock about 101.8% above estimated intrinsic value. The result is sensitive to the growth and discount-rate inputs, so it is best to run conservative, base and optimistic cases. You can adjust all of them yourself with the sliders on the DCF tab.
Axon Enterprise scores 25 out of 100 on Intrinsiqq's quality score, a weighted blend of 8 metrics each scored 0 to 100, which makes it a lower-quality business on these measures. Recent fundamentals include a -0.8% operating margin and a -0.4% return on invested capital. The score weighs revenue and free-cash-flow growth, operating margins, return on invested capital, share-count change, and balance-sheet strength, all computed from SEC filings, not opinion. Because valuation only means something relative to quality, the full metric-by-metric breakdown is on the quality scorecard.
That depends on valuation and quality together, not either alone. AXON currently trades above its estimated intrinsic value and scores 25/100 on quality (lower-quality). A cheap price is only a bargain if the business is durable, and a premium can be justified by genuine quality, so the two questions, "is it cheap?" and "is it good?", only make sense side by side. Read the valuation against the quality scorecard, run the DCF on your own assumptions, and decide for yourself. This is analysis from SEC filings, not investment advice.