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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$3.41
Intrinsic $4.54 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for American States Water Co (AWR) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.0% for years 1–5 and 4.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $38M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $4.54 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $3.41.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$38M
Cash & equivalents
$22M
Total debt
$790M
Shares outstanding
39M