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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$10.87
Intrinsic $14.49 · 25% MOS
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 20.0% for years 1–5 and 10.0% for years 6–10, anchored to 37.1% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($29M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $14.49 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $10.87.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative ($0). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($29M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$29M
Cash & equivalents
$153M
Total debt
$8M
Shares outstanding
110M