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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$139.72
Intrinsic $186.29 · 25% MOS
Current price: $130.18
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Allegion plc (ALLE) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 9.0% for years 1–5 and 4.5% for years 6–10, anchored to 9.0% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $683M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $186.29 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $139.72, suggesting the stock is currently 7% undervalued against the $130.18 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$683M
Cash & equivalents
$309M
Total debt
$2.2B
Shares outstanding
87M