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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$51.79
Intrinsic $69.05 · 25% MOS
Current price: $281.75
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. (APD) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 8.0% for years 1–5 and 4.0% for years 6–10, anchored to a default 8% growth assumption, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from the 3-year average of positive free cash flow ($624M) — TTM FCF was negative, this produces an intrinsic value of $69.05 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $51.79, suggesting the stock is currently 82% overvalued against the $281.75 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
TTM FCF is negative (-$2.5B). Projecting from a negative base produces nonsensical results, so this model uses the 3-year average of positive FCF ($624M) as the base instead. Treat this valuation as a rough estimate — it assumes a return to historical profitability.
Model inputs
Free Cash Flow (3yr avg)
$624M
Cash & equivalents
$951M
Total debt
$1.1B
Shares outstanding
223M