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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$257.00
Intrinsic $342.67 · 25% MOS
Current price: $326.69
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Aon plc (AON) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 9.5% for years 1–5 and 4.8% for years 6–10, anchored to 9.5% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $3.2B in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $342.67 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $257.00, suggesting the stock is currently 21% overvalued against the $326.69 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$3.2B
Cash & equivalents
$2.8B
Total debt
$16.1B
Shares outstanding
217M