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DCF Valuation
Base-case fair value
$16547292816.22
Intrinsic $22063057088.30 · 25% MOS
Current price: $221.64
Base-case summary
Our base-case DCF for Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE) projects 10 years of free cash flow growth at 16.2% for years 1–5 and 8.1% for years 6–10, anchored to 16.2% historical FCF growth, then applies a 2.5% perpetual growth rate and a 8.0% discount rate. Starting from $537M in trailing free cash flow, this produces an intrinsic value of $22063057088.30 per share. A 25% safety margin gives a fair value of $16547292816.22, suggesting the stock is currently 7465842174% undervalued against the $221.64 market price.
See 3 scenarios side by side
Conservative, Base, and Optimistic fair values, plus the sensitivity matrix and FCF history. Free account.
Model inputs
TTM Free Cash Flow
$537M
Cash & equivalents
$323M
Total debt
$0
Shares outstanding
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